SpaceX (SPCX): What Has Happened Since the June IPO

SpaceX (SPCX): What Has Happened Since the June IPO

July 24, 2026

SpaceX went public on June 11 at $135 a share in the largest stock offering in history, raising about $75 billion. It closed its first day of trading at $161. Five days later it touched $225. Today it trades near $113 — roughly half its June high, and about 15% below what buyers paid in the offering itself. Around $1.1 trillion of market value has disappeared in five weeks.

The Basics

Why the Stock Has Fallen

A flood of shares is coming. Despite its size, the offering sold less than 5% of the company. That scarcity pushed the price up in June. It reverses on August 6, when roughly 911 million shares — about $116 billion worth — become free to sell, two days after SpaceX reports its first quarterly results as a public company. By December, roughly 40% of the company will be tradable. Elon Musk’s own shares stay locked up until mid-2027. Buyers today are stepping aside until they see how much of that supply actually reaches the market.

The financials looked different from the story. SpaceX is really three businesses under one ticker. Starlink, the satellite internet service, is genuinely excellent: about $11.4 billion of revenue last year and $4.4 billion of profit. The rocket business lost money. And the artificial intelligence business SpaceX absorbed in February lost about $6.4 billion last year and another $2.5 billion in the first quarter of this year alone. Starlink’s profits are paying for that spending, at a pace above $30 billion a year. That is a different proposition than simply buying the rocket company.

Growth slowed at the same time. Company revenue grew 33% last year but only 15% in the first quarter of 2026. Starlink’s average monthly revenue per customer also fell from $81 to $66 as it expanded into lower-priced markets overseas — more customers, less money from each one.

The headlines did not help. A Starship test launch was called off on the pad on July 16 when engines failed to ignite; another attempt is scheduled for tonight. Bloomberg also reported that SpaceX has begun turning away outside customers seeking Falcon 9 launches after 2028, because it needs those rockets for its own satellites.

What Investors Are Signaling

Skepticism about the price, not about the company. Investors betting against the stock now control roughly 29% of the shares available to trade — an unusually large wager — and they have been adding to those bets as the stock has fallen rather than cashing out. HSBC began covering the stock this morning with a neutral rating and a $115 target, saying plainly that it is not willing to pay today for ideas such as data centers in orbit and a lunar economy.

That is the heart of it. Nothing has broken at Starlink. What changed is that investors finally saw the full financial picture, learned how much cash is flowing into an unprofitable AI venture, and were reminded that a very large number of shares is about to become available for sale. June’s price reflected scarcity and enthusiasm. Today’s price reflects arithmetic.

Our View

We do not own SpaceX and are not looking to. It pays no dividend, spends more cash than it takes in, and its price still assumes a great deal must go right. Those are precisely the characteristics our process screens against, in both the Dividend Growth and Equity Income strategies.

None of that is a prediction that the company will fail. SpaceX may well be a landmark business a decade from now. But being an important company and being a sound investment at a given price are two different questions, and only the second one is ours to answer on your behalf.

We will keep watching it, mainly as a barometer. Several other large companies are expected to go public later this year, and how the market absorbs SpaceX’s flood of shares in August will tell us something about the appetite for what follows.

This note is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Lighthouse Financial Services does not hold SPCX in client portfolios. Figures are drawn from company filings and reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg, and Morningstar as of July 24, 2026, and are subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please contact us to discuss how any of this applies to your specific circumstances.