Markets Up On Soft Landing Bets

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all opened sharply higher this morning on what Bloomberg News calls “soft landing bets.” All eleven major market sectors are in the green. Most commodities are trading higher despite a stronger dollar. Bonds are selling off, however, as interest rate expectations rise. The narrative goes like this: recent data…

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Consumer Spending & Inflation

Bank of America’s Liz Krisberg shared some thoughts on consumer spending in a recent CNBC interview. Her bottom line: spending may be moderating, but remains stable and positive. It is true that consumers are spending more on necessities, primarily because gasoline prices are rising again. This trend may continue to crowd out some discretionary spending…

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Look Out, the Economy is in Good Shape!

Stocks dropped this morning following release of some pretty encouraging economic data. Currently, the Dow is down 264 points and the S&P 500 is off by 1%. This is also causing the dollar to appreciate vs. foreign currencies, resulting in lower commodity prices. WTI crude oil is flat this morning, but gold, silver, iron ore…

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The Fed’s Golden Path

Stocks opened modestly higher this morning (Dow +160 pts; SPX +.3%). Commodities aren’t moving much, and the bond market is trying to rally after a two-week decline. All in all, this is a pretty muted reaction to the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole meeting. Fed officials kicked off their annual conference in Jackson Hole today…

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August Doldrums

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened lower again this morning, bringing month-to-date declines to about -4%. Wall Street analysts have characterized August trade action as “sloppiness” or “doldrums,” or just typical “seasonal” weakness. It’s not so much that traders are selling, but rather that they’re not buying. Plenty of solid stocks are pulling back…

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Earnings Season Drawing to a Close

Stocks opened modestly lower this morning (Dow -190 points; SPX -.3%). Once again, there are no signs of panic, but August is typically a sleepy month. And traders’ current obsession—what Fed Chair Powell will say in his Jackson Hole speech—won’t play out until Friday. We’re more focused on the bond market, which continues to sell…

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No Man’s Land

Stock market indexes are waffling without conviction this morning. With earnings season nearly finished and key inflation reports in the rear-view mirror, we’re sort of in no-man’s-land waiting for a catalyst to either resume the rally or confirm a correction. As always, traders are wary of what the Fed may do next. Bonds are selling…

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Is the Economy Too Strong?

Major stock indexes are down so far this month, taking a break following a rather impressive 9-month rally. Economic data continue to beat expectations and fear of imminent recession has faded. Bond prices are also falling back, allowing yields to float higher. Investors are wondering whether an unexpectedly strong economy might cause the Federal Reserve…

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Fed Gets Permission to Pause Rate Hikes

Stocks jumped at the open but quickly pared gains. Currently, the Dow is up 130 points and the S&P 500 is up .3%. The big story today is inflation (see below). But a close second is oil, which has picked up about $10/barrel over the last month. Of course, there is nothing more episodic in…

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