The Golden Path

Stocks bounced this morning, reversing a two-day decline. Currently, the Dow is up 98 points and the S&P 500 is up .6%. Bonds, which sold off hard earlier in the week, are also in rally mode as interest rates edge lower. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just published its monthly Employment Situation Report and…

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Fed Poised to Resume Rate Hikes

Stocks sank at the open today, selling off alongside bonds. The S&P 500 is currently down 1% and the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is off by about .4%. The big fear du jour is that the Federal Reserve will soon restart interest rate hikes. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting were published yesterday.…

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Stocks, Bonds Respond to Better Economy

Stocks gained ground over the past week as traders weighed better economic reports against the possibility of more Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed more than 1.3%. Commodities also posted gains, with WTI crude oil back up to $72/barrel. On the other hand, bonds have sold off in recent sessions…

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The Market Narrative is Changing

Stocks opened higher this morning despite higher unemployment insurance claims (see below). Currently the Dow is up 118 points and the S&P 500 is up .4%. The VIX Index, measuring fear among stock traders, has fallen back under 14, which is considered pretty low. Are traders finally letting their guard down, or is it sinking…

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Stocks, Bonds, Commodities All Rising

Stocks opened higher this morning as some of the debt ceiling risk fades. Currently, the Dow is up 200 points and the S&P 500 is up .8%. The Nasdaq is up 1%. Commodities are broadly higher (oil +3%, copper +2%, gold +1%). The bond market is also trading modestly higher. We rarely see all three…

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Debt Ceiling Vote Tonight

Major stock market indices fell slightly today as traders fretted about the chances for a solution to the debt ceiling crisis. The Dow ended the session down 135 points and the S&P 500 fell .6%. Crude oil fell after some weak economic data out of China, and gold was up modestly. Bonds rallied for the…

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US Economy Isn’t Crashing

Stocks opened higher today, building on yesterday’s rally. The session is heavily tilted toward tech stocks (+2.3%). On the other hand, bonds are selling off as interest rates move higher. Investors seem pretty well convinced that the debt ceiling crisis will be resolved, and that the economy isn’t crashing. Despite persistent and loud recession calls…

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Job Market Isn’t Falling Apart

The stock market surged on the latest Employment Situation Report (see below). Currently, the Dow is up 360 points and the S&P 500 is up 1.3%. Bonds, except for junk corporates, are selling off. Job growth may be slowing, but the labor market remains strong. The US economy generated 253,000 new jobs in April, which…

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Post-Fed Hangover

Stocks and bonds are selling off today following yesterday’s Fed announcement (see below). The Dow is off by about 350 points, the S&P 500 is down .7% and the Nasdaq is down .4%. The Federal Reserve again raised its short-term policy interest rate by .25% as expected. This tenth consecutive rate increase brings it to…

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