Year In Review

The stock market opened lower this morning, reversing some of yesterday’s rally. On this last trading day of the year, exchange volume is very light as many Wall Street traders are on vacation. At the moment, it looks as though the S&P 500 Index will finish the year with a -20% return. Small-caps and emerging…

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China Comes to its Senses

Stocks are limping into year-end (Dow +113 points, S&P 500 -.14%; Nasdaq -.9%). Tech and internet stocks are leading to the downside along with Tesla, which cut production guidance. And while China’s reopening buoyed Asian markets, terrible winter weather back east wreaked havoc with airline stocks. The bond is market is selling off as well,…

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Investors’ Message to the Fed: Be Patient

Major stock market averages opened lower today, but have clawed back into the green. The Dow is up 160 points today (and a rather stunning 4,460 points so far this quarter). The S&P 500 is up .4% today and 7.1% for the quarter. Commodities surged ahead this morning—gold +.5%; oil +2.9%; copper +1.1%—on dollar weakness.…

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Santa Claus Rally is Back

The Dow and S&P 500 gapped up this morning on improved consumer confidence and a couple of strong earnings reports. Commodities—oil, natural gas, copper, iron ore—are trading higher as well. The bond market is mixed in today’s session. Short-term Treasuries are catching a slight bid, while long-term notes are down in price. Said differently, short-term…

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Economy Loses Momentum

The stock market opened down this morning (Dow -855 pts; SPX -2.6%) as a result of yesterday’s Fed announcement, which was seen as more hawkish than expected. For the same reason, one would think the bond market should be down, but it isn’t. Treasuries and high-grade corporates are rallying because interest rate expectations are falling…

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Fed Credibility At Risk

Stocks opened higher this morning, but quickly gave way after the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement (see below). Currently, the Dow is down 50 points and the S&P 500 is down .2%. Bonds are also under pressure due to rising interest rates expectations. As expected, the Fed raised its short-term policy interest rate by .5% to…

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Inflation Trending Lower

Stock market indexes opened lower today but quickly turned around. Currently, the Dow is flat and the S&P 500 is up .17%. Apparently, traders are shrugging off a hot inflation report (see below). The stock market rally is nearly two months old, but many on Wall Street are calling for its demise. I suppose it’s…

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Inflation & Interest Rates Headed Down Together

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow +46 points; SPX flat; Nasdaq -.3%) without any real direction. The VIX fear gauge is up a bit to 22.6. All year this index has fluctuated between 20 and 35. In a turnabout from the last couple of months, defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples are leading today,…

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Jobs Report Suggests Continued Strength

Stocks fell at the open in response to the latest jobs report (see below). Currently, the Dow is down 50 points and the S&P 500 is down .4%. Bonds are selling off as well. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is down .4%, and the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is…

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