Economy Slowing, Fed Should Be Patient

Stocks opened higher today despite weaker macro data (see below). Currently, the Dow is up 308 points and the S&P 500 is up 1.25%. Of the eleven market sectors, only energy and healthcare are sitting out today’s rally. Bonds are selling off again as interest rates float a bit higher. We’re watching the 2-year Treasury…

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Earnings Season Highlights

Major stock market indexes are trying to stage a come-back from yesterday’s rout. Currently, the Dow is down 42 points, the S&P 500 is up .1% and the Nasdaq is up 1%. Bonds are selling off, allowing interest yields to float upward. Long-term Treasuries are down about 1% whereas junk corporates are only about .2%…

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Investors Pessimistic as Earnings Season Gets Going

Following recent pattern, major US stock indexes opened down and are now clawing their way back. Currently, the Dow is down 72 points and the S&P 500 is flat. Year-to-date those indexes are up nicely, but trading is very choppy. Bonds are selling off again today, pushing interest yields higher. Last month bond yields tumbled…

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Stuck Between the Fed and Inflation

Stocks and bonds are meandering rather listlessly as investors digest the latest economic news and earnings announcements. At the moment, the Dow is flat and the S&P 500 is down .2%. Bonds are selling off a bit, allowing yields to move a little higher. Traders are reaching a grudging acceptance that the Federal Reserve might…

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Latest CPI Report Confirms Falling Inflation

Major stock market averages are meandering around without conviction today. The dollar is weaker, giving some room for commodities to rise. WTI crude oil is up over $83/barrel; silver, gold & copper are extending recent gains as well. Despite the release of March inflation data, which was expected to produce huge volatility in the bond…

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Hiring Begins to Slow

Stocks gapped down at the open this morning but quickly reversed course. At the moment, the Dow is up 48 points and the S&P 500 is down only .15%. The VIX fear gauge remains below 20 suggesting no real panic. Maybe that’s because, despite a recent wave of recession fear, safe-haven investments like gold and…

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When Will the Fed Come Around?

Stocks opened mixed this morning, reacting to tension between investors and the Fed. Currently, the Dow is flat and the S&P 500 is down .5%. The VIX fear gauge remains under 20, suggesting no panic. But we’re definitely seeing some deterioration in economic data. Not surprisingly, Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds are trading higher. US…

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Data Tells Us Fed’s Job is Done

Stocks opened mixed this morning with the S&P 500 flat, the Dow up 230 points, and the Nasdaq down .8%. WTI crude oil popped 6% after OPEC announced a surprise production cut to stem falling prices. The bond market is mixed with junk sagging but high-grade corporates and Treasuries gaining. Trading activity in bonds is…

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Fear Subsides Among Traders

Stocks gapped up at the open, reversing yesterday’s declines. Currently, the Dow is up 220 points and the S&P 500 is up 1%. A number of sectors are up more than 1% in early trading: consumer discretionary, financials, tech, real estate and utilities. The VIX fear gauge fell back under 20 and bank stocks are…

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Banking Crisis Receding

Major stock market indexes gapped up at the open this morning, following through on a rally that began last Wednesday. Banks are outperforming as fear subsides. Bonds, which caught a bid last week on increased recession fears, are selling off today. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its short-term policy interest rate by .25% last…

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