Posts by Mike Verity

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing the Fed-funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%. With this move, the Fed now believes policy has reached the high end of “neutral”—the level at which interest rates neither slow nor stimulate economic growth. A Shift in the Fed’s Priorities One of the most notable aspects…

This has been a tough month for investing as a couple of big questions muddled the rally narrative. First, despite strong third-quarter earnings reports, has the AI trade become a bubble? Second, did the government shutdown gut-punch the economy? The AI Trade I see two good arguments for some caution regarding the AI trade. First,…

Capital markets have been a bit more cautious over the past week. The S&P 500 is about 1.7% below its intraday record high and the Nasdaq is about 2.7% lower. Tech & communications stocks, especially AI-related, are sitting on huge year-to-date gains as well as lofty valuations. Investors are beginning to debate whether an unhealthy…

In a change of trend, stocks closed lower in today’s session. Not sharply lower, you understand, but just enough to remind us that we can’t have a record high every day. This has been a very good year for investors. Broad stock market indices are now up somewhere between 8% and 12%. Even the bond…

Stocks opened broadly higher again this morning, brushing off a weaker than expected labor market report. The Dow is up 550 points and the S&P 500 is up .7%. Perhaps it’s all about expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. And indeed, some of the sectors rallying the hardest—real estate, materials, financials—are the ones…

Markets opened cautiously, and modestly, higher this morning. The Dow is up around 100 points and the S&P 500 is up .1%. Treasury yields dipped slightly at the open, as markets cement expectations for a .25% rate cut at the next Federal Reserve policy meeting on September 17. We got more evidence that the job…

Stocks continue to push higher toward record levels despite political/geopolitical nonsense—and even in the face of a weaker job market report released this morning. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all gained ~1% in today’s session. It is becoming increasingly clear that the labor market is softening a bit. For a while we’ve been referring…